DATATHIEF TOLERANCE DRIVERS
The complex drivers of thermal acclimation and breadth in ectotherms. Embracing interactions in ocean acidification research: confronting multiple stressor scenarios and context dependence. Climate change tightens a metabolic constraint on marine habitats. Oxygen- and capacity-limited thermal tolerance: bridging ecology and physiology. Quantifying the evidence for ecological synergies. A review and meta-analysis of the effects of multiple abiotic stressors on marine embryos and larvae. Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming. Climate sensitivity across marine domains of life: limits to evolutionary adaptation shape species interactions. Sensitivities of extant animal taxa to ocean acidification. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record. How does climate change cause extinction?. Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Temperature effects on oxygen thresholds for hypoxia in marine benthic organisms. Placing our current ‘hyperthermal’ in the context of rapid climate change in our geological past. Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction. Marine metazoan modern mass extinction: improving predictions by integrating fossil, modern, and physiological data.
Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity. Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions. Paleophysiology and end-Permian mass extinction. On the potential for ocean acidification to be a general cause of ancient reef crises. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans. According to results from marine ectotherms, clade-based sensitivity of individuals to climate-related stressors scales up from subannual experiments and decadal range-shift response magnitudes 11, to extinction selectivity patterns at ancient climate-related stressor events and the Phanerozoic durations of genera. Modern–fossil agreement is strongest at intermediate–high extinction intensities and hyperthermal events but may fail at extreme extinction events, perhaps due to rising prominences of, and interactions among, additional biotic and abiotic stressors. All else being equal 8, this synergy particularly imperils modern warm-water organisms.
DATATHIEF TOLERANCE DRIVER
Of climate-related stressors, the synergistic interaction between warming and hypoxia 10, encumbering aerobic metabolism, has the greatest potency as a proximate driver of extinction. Here we show that experimental responses of modern marine ectotherms to single and combined climate-related stressors (such as seawater warming, hypoxia and acidification) align with Phanerozoic fossil extinction regimes across clades and functional traits. Yet these hypotheses have largely escaped quantitative appraisal. This premise is based on two hypotheses: (1) known individual physiological sensitivities scale up to macroecological selectivity patterns 4, 7, 8 and (2) ancient hyperthermal events are appropriate models to anticipate ecological winners and losers of anthropogenic climate change 9. Rapid climate change is postulated to cause marine extinctions, especially among climate-sensitive clades, traits and regions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
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